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Model to Predict Student Performance on the Comprehensive Osteopathic Medical Licensing Examination-USA Level 1 Based on the Medical College Admission Test, Undergraduate Grade Point Average (GPA), and Osteopathic Medical School GPA

Journal: The Journal of the American Osteopathic Association Date: 2014/12, 114(12):Pages: e162-e163. doi: Subito , type of study: retrospective study

Full text    (https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.7556/jaoa.2014.181/html)

Keywords:

exams [33]
osteopathic medicine [2055]
retrospective study [325]
USA [1707]

Abstract:

Objective: To investigate relationship between pre-matriculation and academic variables and performance on Comprehensive Osteopathic Medical Licensing Examination-USA (COMLEX-USA) Level 1 at a single osteopathic medical school. Hypothesis: There is a positive association between undergraduate grade point average (GPA), Medical College Admission Test (MCAT), medical school first-year GPA, and COMLEX-USA Level 1 performance. Methods: A nonexperimental design used retrospective review of student cohort's academic data from 2009-2013. Independent variables were undergraduate institutions attended, undergraduate cumulative GPA, science GPA, science hours, first MCAT, highest MCAT, times MCAT taken, and medical school GPA including the first year and the spring semesters of the first through second year. The dependent variable was COMLEX-USA Level 1. Descriptive statistics included frequency, mean (SD), identifying variables by sex and by cohort year. Bivariate correlations and linear regression explored associations and the ability of variables to predict COMLEX-USA Level 1 performance. Results: A total of 1263 student academic records were analyzed (43.5% female, 56.5% male) from 2009-2013, with academic year cohort range of 239 to 265 students. Undergraduate GPA included cumulative (mean [SD]x¯, 3.58 [0.281]) and science (x¯, 3.52 [0.259]). 84.7% of students took the MCAT 1 to 2 times, and 14.7% took the MCAT 3 to 4 times (first MCAT score: x¯, 24.43 [3.62] and highest MCAT score: x¯, 26.37 [2.78]). Medical school means included first-year GPA (x¯, 3.00 [0.571]), first-year spring GPA (x¯, 3.04 [0.501]), and second-year spring GPA (x¯, 3.05 [0.453]). A linear regression model used predictor variables (1) cumulative undergraduate GPA; (2) first MCAT score and; (3) first-year GPA, with the dependent variable COMLEX-USA Level 1. A significant proportion of the total variation in COMLEX-USA Level 1 was predicted by the model. All 3 variables were significant predictors, and the model accounted for 61% of the variance in COMLEX-USA Level 1, F(3, 673)=350.545; P=.000; R2=0.61. Small negative associations were found between number of COMLEX-USA Level 1 attempts and first-year GPA, undergraduate science GPA, and COMLEX-USA Level 1. Negative associations were also found between number of MCATs taken and medical school GPA, highest MCAT score, and COMLEX-USA Level 1. All associations were statistically significant at a .05 P value. Conclusion: This study validates previous studies supporting associations between undergraduate GPA, MCAT score, medical school GPA, and COMLEX-USA Level 1 performance. This study also identified first MCAT score as an early predictor of future performance. Furthermore, number of MCATs taken was associated with lower MCAT score, lower medical school GPA, and was minimally associated with lower COMLEX-USA Level 1 score. Using predictors of performance can reduce barriers and facilitate early intervention for at-risk students.


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